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szdaily -> Business -> 
Exports seen rebounding
    2019-04-11  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

EXPORTS are expected to have rebounded in March after a sharp drop in February, while imports likely shrank for a fourth straight month but at a more modest pace, a recent poll showed.

If Friday’s data are in line with forecasts or better, it could add to early signs of stabilization in the world’s largest trading nation as worries grow over slowing global growth.

But some analysts said the gains may be due more to seasonal factors than a turnaround, with shipments likely to jump after Chinese New Year holidays had dampened business activity in February.

Exports in March are expected to have risen 7.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 32 economists in a Reuters poll, following a 20.8 percent drop in February.

“This distortion is particularly strong in early March but no longer around in the second half of the month as the impacts of the festival normally last for less than a month,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

China’s Commerce Ministry said recently that both exports and imports had rebounded in the first half of March.

Factory surveys for March also provided some glimmers of hope on the export front. While export orders remained sluggish, there were some signs that a long spell of contraction is easing.

“We do not expect a distinct pickup in exports in the coming months as the recovery of the global economy is slowing down and a relatively strong yuan currency is expected to cap the rise,” said Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust in Shanghai.

China’s imports in March are expected to have fallen 1.3 percent from a year earlier, though the drop was seen narrowing from the previous month’s 5.2 percent decline.

Factory activity surveys had shown an unexpected return to growth last month, suggesting domestic demand was starting to respond to a slew of government economic support measures.

Still, most of the poll respondents penciled in a contraction in imports, with the lowest forecast projecting a 18.2 percent drop.(SD-Agencies)

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